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Registered Heresy: No Holds Barred Political Analysis: What Iranian threat?

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

What Iranian threat?

Today the Russian ambassador to the US made the statement that Iran was not a real threat to the United States, at least as far as he could see anytime in the near future. My first reaction upon hearing this was to chuckle and roll my eyes as this sounds like classic, quotable Russian doublespeak. However, after some thought I do believe the ambassador is right. There will be no Iranian troops in Florida anytime soon, and Iran is quite a ways away from being able to launch an ICBM all the way over to the East Coast. It would be quite easy to pass the Iranian situation off to the UN Security(or lack thereof) council. If Israel feels compelled to use military means to stop Iran, let them go for it. Even with a full-blown middle east war, American soil will not be in jeopardy. In fact, Mexican drug cartels pose a much greater threat as far as incursion on American soil goes.

But that's not the point.

Iran is a threat to United State's interests, not actual land. A hot war with Israel and probably other Islamic nations would no doubt draw in American troops in Iraq and even Afghanistan possibly.

The US could possibly lose priceless strategic leverage gained by placing a pro-American democracy right smack dab in the middle of the well, middle east. Even if war does not break out in the aftermath of a nuclear-armed and capable Iran, its power in the region will grow exponentially. Smaller sunshine Arab states that are currently mostly friendly towards the US and the west will be sucked into the new Iranian sphere of influence. Much of the area used to be under Persian control anyway, the changing of the guard could bring a historical sense of deja vu to the locals.

So the question remains, why did the Russian ambassador say such a thing? Why is Russia so reluctant to support the EU and US's clampdown on Iran at the UN? Why is Russia not willing to halt economic and militaristic support to Iran even as its elected (although admittedly puppet) President says anti-semantic things on a regular basis?
Because, my dear reader the only way Russia can grow its own influence is to diminish the United States. That is true in Eastern Europe, that is true in the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Korean Peninsula. Russia is surrounded by an invisible fence of American interest and assets. Let us hope the new President choses not to let the bear out of its cage.

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